{"id":622,"date":"2017-11-20T00:00:36","date_gmt":"2017-11-20T00:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/votemoscr.com\/?p=622"},"modified":"2017-11-20T21:51:55","modified_gmt":"2017-11-20T21:51:55","slug":"sera-muy-volatil-la-intencion-de-voto-en-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/votemoscr.com\/2018\/sera-muy-volatil-la-intencion-de-voto-en-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfSer\u00e1 muy vol\u00e1til la intenci\u00f3n de voto en 2018?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"pl-622\"  class=\"panel-layout\" ><div id=\"pg-622-0\"  class=\"panel-grid panel-no-style\" ><div id=\"pgc-622-0-0\"  class=\"panel-grid-cell panel-grid-cell-empty\" ><\/div><div id=\"pgc-622-0-1\"  class=\"panel-grid-cell panel-grid-cell-mobile-last\" ><div id=\"panel-622-0-1-0\" class=\"so-panel widget widget_sow-editor panel-first-child panel-last-child\" data-index=\"0\" ><div\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\tclass=\"so-widget-sow-editor so-widget-sow-editor-base\"\n\t\t\t\n\t\t>\n<div class=\"siteorigin-widget-tinymce textwidget\">\n\t<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u00bfCambiar\u00e1 mucho la intenci\u00f3n de voto a lo largo de la campa\u00f1a 2018?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>En la elecci\u00f3n de 2014 la intenci\u00f3n de voto de los costarricenses fue muy cambiante. La mayor\u00eda de los ciudadanos no sab\u00eda por qui\u00e9n votar o cambi\u00f3 de partido varias veces. En aquella oportunidad no hubo un claro ganador a lo largo de toda la campa\u00f1a. De repente un candidato sub\u00eda y luego bajaba; luego le tocaba el turno a otro y as\u00ed hasta que finalmente la mayor\u00eda se decant\u00f3, en segunda ronda, por uno.<\/p>\n<p>El gr\u00e1fico muestra el comportamiento de 150 individuos, representados cada uno por una bola. Los desplazamientos reflejan la inestabilidad y los cambios de preferencia a lo largo de cinco momentos durante de la campa\u00f1a: al inicio en octubre de 2013, en noviembre, en diciembre, en enero y luego de las elecciones de febrero de 2014.<\/p>\n<p>Las tonalidades de cada bola representan los colores de los partidos (PLN-verde; FA-negro; PAC-amarillo; PUSC-azul; ML-rojo; Otros partidos-rosado; Indecisos-gris) que dijo apoyar en octubre, de manera que, cuando un individuo modific\u00f3 su preferencia, cambi\u00f3 su posici\u00f3n en la red y se aline\u00f3 junto a la nueva agrupaci\u00f3n que dijo respaldar. El color de la bola no cambia para comparar la preferencia en el momento inicial y la ubicaci\u00f3n en los distintos momentos.<\/p>\n<p>\u00bfSe repetir\u00e1 este escenario en 2018? todo hacer pensar que la intenci\u00f3n de voto en 2018 ser\u00e1 igual o incluso m\u00e1s vol\u00e1til que en 2014.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Panel electoral trayectorias<br \/> <\/strong><\/p>\n<style>\n       .errordiv { padding:10px; margin:10px; border: 1px solid #555555;color: #000000;background-color: #f8f8f8; width:500px; }#advanced_iframe {visibility:visible;opacity:1;vertical-align:top;}.ai-info-bottom-iframe { position: fixed; z-index: 10000; bottom:0; left: 0; margin: 0px; text-align: center; width: 100%; background-color: #ff9999; padding-left: 5px;padding-bottom: 5px; border-top: 1px solid #aaa } a.ai-bold {font-weight: bold;}#ai-layer-div-advanced_iframe p {height:100%;margin:0;padding:0}<\/style><script type=\"text\/javascript\">var ai_iframe_width_advanced_iframe = 0;var ai_iframe_height_advanced_iframe = 0;var aiOnloadScrollTop=\"true\";var aiShowDebug=false;\n\t\tif (typeof aiReadyCallbacks === 'undefined') {\n\t\t\tvar aiReadyCallbacks = [];\n\t\t} else if (!(aiReadyCallbacks instanceof Array)) {\n\t\t\tvar aiReadyCallbacks = [];\n\t\t}    function aiShowIframeId(id_iframe) { jQuery(\"#\"+id_iframe).css(\"visibility\", \"visible\");    }    function aiResizeIframeHeight(height) { aiResizeIframeHeight(height,advanced_iframe); }    function aiResizeIframeHeightId(height,width,id) {aiResizeIframeHeightById(id,height);}<\/script><iframe id=\"advanced_iframe\"  name=\"advanced_iframe\"  src=\"https:\/\/votemoscr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2017\/11\/trayectorias.html\"  width=\"100%\"  height=\"600\"  frameborder=\"0\"  border=\"0\"  allowtransparency=\"true\"  loading=\"lazy\"  style=\";border-width: 0px;;border: none;;width:100%;;height:600px;\" ><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">var ifrm_advanced_iframe = document.getElementById(\"advanced_iframe\");var hiddenTabsDoneadvanced_iframe = false;\nfunction resizeCallbackadvanced_iframe() {}<\/script><script type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script><p style=\"display:block !important; visibility:visible !important;margin: -18px 14px 0 0;padding-left: 3px;padding-top:3px;background: white; overflow: hidden; position: relative; line-height:15px;width: fit-content;\"><small style=\"display:block !important;visibility:visible !important\">powered by Advanced iFrame<\/small><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div id=\"pgc-622-0-2\"  class=\"panel-grid-cell panel-grid-cell-empty\" ><\/div><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00bfCambiar\u00e1 mucho la intenci\u00f3n de voto a lo largo de la campa\u00f1a 2018? En la elecci\u00f3n de 2014 la intenci\u00f3n de voto de los costarricenses fue muy cambiante. La mayor\u00eda de los ciudadanos no sab\u00eda por qui\u00e9n votar o cambi\u00f3 de partido varias veces. En aquella oportunidad no hubo un claro ganador a lo largo [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":645,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"table_tags":[],"ppma_author":[14],"class_list":["post-622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-clima-electoral"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u00bfSer\u00e1 muy vol\u00e1til la intenci\u00f3n de voto en 2018? - VotemosCR v2018<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/votemoscr.com\/2018\/sera-muy-volatil-la-intencion-de-voto-en-2018\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00bfSer\u00e1 muy vol\u00e1til la intenci\u00f3n de voto en 2018? - VotemosCR v2018\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00bfCambiar\u00e1 mucho la intenci\u00f3n de voto a lo largo de la campa\u00f1a 2018? En la elecci\u00f3n de 2014 la intenci\u00f3n de voto de los costarricenses fue muy cambiante. La mayor\u00eda de los ciudadanos no sab\u00eda por qui\u00e9n votar o cambi\u00f3 de partido varias veces. 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