{"id":1277,"date":"2018-03-14T22:17:59","date_gmt":"2018-03-14T22:17:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/votemoscr.com\/?p=1277"},"modified":"2026-06-04T15:19:23","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T15:19:23","slug":"5-de-cada-10-electores-cambiaron-de-partido-entre-2014-y-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/votemoscr.com\/2018\/5-de-cada-10-electores-cambiaron-de-partido-entre-2014-y-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"5 de cada 10 electores cambiaron de partido entre 2014 y 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"pl-1277\"  class=\"panel-layout\" ><div id=\"pg-1277-0\"  class=\"panel-grid panel-no-style\" ><div id=\"pgc-1277-0-0\"  class=\"panel-grid-cell panel-grid-cell-empty\" ><\/div><div id=\"pgc-1277-0-1\"  class=\"panel-grid-cell panel-grid-cell-mobile-last\" ><div id=\"panel-1277-0-1-0\" class=\"so-panel widget widget_sow-editor panel-first-child panel-last-child\" data-index=\"0\" ><div\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\tclass=\"so-widget-sow-editor so-widget-sow-editor-base\"\n\t\t\t\n\t\t><h3 class=\"widget-title\">5 de cada 10 electores cambiaron de partido entre 2014 y 2018<\/h3>\n<div class=\"siteorigin-widget-tinymce textwidget\">\n\t<p>Seg\u00fan las cifras oficiales del TSE en 2018 cinco de cada 10 electores votaron por un partido pol\u00edtico distinto al que hab\u00edan respaldo en 2014. A este fen\u00f3meno se le conoce como <em>volatilidad electoral<\/em> y para medirlo se utiliza un indicador que calcula los cambios netos entre las proporciones de votos obtenidos por todos los partidos pol\u00edticos en dos elecciones sucesivas.<\/p>\n<p>El \u00edndice de volatilidad mide la cantidad de electores que cambian su voto de un partido a otro en dos elecciones sucesivas. A mayor valor del \u00edndice, mayor es la volatilidad electoral. El \u00edndice puede alcanzar valores de 0 a 100%; un valor de 100% significar\u00eda que todos los electores cambiaron de partido de una elecci\u00f3n a otra (el sistema es muy vol\u00e1til) y 0% significar\u00eda que ning\u00fan elector cambi\u00f3 de partido (el sistema no es vol\u00e1til, b\u00e1sicamente todo queda igual).<\/p>\n<p>Los cambios en las preferencias partidarias entre 2014 y 2018 reportados por el \u00edndice, son los m\u00e1s altos de los \u00faltimos 40 a\u00f1os y los terceros m\u00e1s altos s\u00f3lo superados por los registrados entre 1962-1966 y entre 1974-1978.<\/p>\n<p>Analizados desde una perspectiva hist\u00f3rica, los incrementos en la volatilidad electoral en el per\u00edodo 1953-2018 produjeron alteraciones importantes en la correlaci\u00f3n de fuerzas pol\u00edticas, particularmente en las elecciones de 1966, 1978, 2006 y 2018. En estos procesos electorales los cambios en el respaldo generaron desplazamientos y sustituciones de partidos pol\u00edticos de una elecci\u00f3n a otra. Inclusive algunas agrupaciones desaparecen por completo de la escena pol\u00edtica, tal y como sucedi\u00f3 con Uni\u00f3n Nacional en 1962 y Unificaci\u00f3n Nacional en 1978. En las fases hist\u00f3ricas de mayores niveles de volatilidad se altera significativamente la correlaci\u00f3n de fuerzas en las instancias de representaci\u00f3n pol\u00edtica.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Gr\u00e1fico: Volatilidad electoral 1953-2018<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div id=\"pgc-1277-0-2\"  class=\"panel-grid-cell panel-grid-cell-empty\" ><\/div><\/div><div id=\"pg-1277-1\"  class=\"panel-grid panel-no-style\" ><div id=\"pgc-1277-1-0\"  class=\"panel-grid-cell panel-grid-cell-empty\" ><\/div><div id=\"pgc-1277-1-1\"  class=\"panel-grid-cell panel-grid-cell-mobile-last\" ><div id=\"panel-1277-1-1-0\" class=\"so-panel widget widget_media_image panel-first-child panel-last-child\" data-index=\"1\" ><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"590\" height=\"702\" src=\"https:\/\/votemoscr.com\/2018\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/03\/Grafico-volatilidad-1953-2018-post.jpg\" class=\"image wp-image-1373  attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/votemoscr.com\/2018\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/03\/Grafico-volatilidad-1953-2018-post.jpg 590w, https:\/\/votemoscr.com\/2018\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/03\/Grafico-volatilidad-1953-2018-post-250x297.jpg 250w, https:\/\/votemoscr.com\/2018\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/03\/Grafico-volatilidad-1953-2018-post-120x143.jpg 120w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 590px) 100vw, 590px\" \/><\/div><\/div><div id=\"pgc-1277-1-2\"  class=\"panel-grid-cell panel-grid-cell-empty\" ><\/div><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Seg\u00fan las cifras oficiales del TSE en 2018 cinco de cada 10 electores votaron por un partido pol\u00edtico distinto al que hab\u00edan respaldo en 2014. A este fen\u00f3meno se le conoce como volatilidad electoral y para medirlo se utiliza un indicador que calcula los cambios netos entre las proporciones de votos obtenidos por todos los [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":1373,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"table_tags":[],"ppma_author":[14],"class_list":["post-1277","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-electores"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>5 de cada 10 electores cambiaron de partido entre 2014 y 2018 - VotemosCR v2018<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/votemoscr.com\/2018\/5-de-cada-10-electores-cambiaron-de-partido-entre-2014-y-2018\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"5 de cada 10 electores cambiaron de partido entre 2014 y 2018 - VotemosCR v2018\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Seg\u00fan las cifras oficiales del TSE en 2018 cinco de cada 10 electores votaron por un partido pol\u00edtico distinto al que hab\u00edan respaldo en 2014. 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